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Research

Research on Bolivia's economy and financial system with quantitative methods. Each paper comes with its abstract, main results, data and how to cite it.

2
papers
2022–2026
period
1
recognition
Conference paperTo be presented in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 November 2026

Persistence, duration and transition dynamics between stability and exchange-rate stress regimes

A two-state MS-AR(10) model on 462 daily USDT/BOB returns identifies a speculative regime with 68 times higher variance and a mean duration of 4.77 trading days, and a calm regime lasting 11.25 trading days on average: pressure episodes are intense but transitory.

Markov-switchingMS-AR(10)USDT/BOBOut-of-sample validation
Abstract and resultsPDFSee the model live →
7.51012.51517.52025Jul2026Jul
  • USDT/BOB
  • Official rate
  • Stress regime
Stress episodes identified by the model, updated every day.

All research

Papers and presentations

  1. 2026Conference paper

    Persistence, duration and transition dynamics between stability and exchange-rate stress regimes

    To be presented in La Paz, Bolivia, 10 November 2026

    A two-state MS-AR(10) model on 462 daily USDT/BOB returns identifies a speculative regime with 68 times higher variance and a mean duration of 4.77 trading days, and a calm regime lasting 11.25 trading days on average: pressure episodes are intense but transitory.

    Markov-switchingMS-AR(10)USDT/BOBOut-of-sample validation
    Read more →PDF
  2. 2022Research paperSpecial Mention

    Unconventional Monetary Policy, the Pandemic, and Their Impact on the Bolivian Economy

    15th Meeting of Bolivian Economists

    Research paper on unconventional monetary policy during the pandemic and its impact on the Bolivian economy.

    Monetary policyCOVID-19Bolivia

New papers are added here as they are presented or published.